GET TO KNOW THE REAL ESTATE MARKET 2019
Mr. Vu Van Phan, Deputy Director of Department of Housing Management and Real Estate Market of Ministry of Construction: No risk of real estate bubble
The real estate market in 2019 keeps stable, there is no risk of real estate bubbles.Bubbles only occur when many factors converge at the same time, which is macroeconomic instability, hot growth; other investment markets such as gold, foreign currencies, securities, unstable and unattractive deposit interest rates; loose and limited supply of real estate products; real estate finance and credit policies, easy credit downgrades, the too big capital flowing into the real estate market; the lack of timely and reasonable intervention of the state in the market.
Looking at the above factors, it can be seen that in 2019, the macro economy continues to grow stably. Other investment markets such as gold, foreign currencies, securities, bank deposit rates,… are expected not to experience big changes.
With the real estate market, the current supply is quite large compared to the demand, there is no possibility of scarcity, especially for separate houses and mid-high-end apartments. The market today only lacks the supply of affordable residential, commercial and social housing. Now many projects are being adjusted to increase the supply of the average price segment.
Although there has been a local fever in the past time in some areas, the main segment of the apartment real estate market is still normal without price fever phenomenon. Credit policy of the real estate is being effectively controlled by the state bank, credit balance is at the permitted level, the interest rate maintains relatively stable, credit institutions are implementing a roadmap which gradually limits lending to the real estate sector.
In terms of management, the State’s direction and management in the real estate market is increasingly focused. Market control tools such as tax policy, credit, planning, land use plans, investment policies of projects, … remain effective. The economic sectors, businesses, investors and consumers also have more knowledge, experience when participating in the market through the past fluctuations. However, in 2019, the market may continue to increase in land price in areas benefiting from policies. This fact will also take place in newly invested urban areas with synchronous investment in technical and social infrastructure.
In addition, there will be local heating fever in some housing projects in the urban center area with fast construction progress, good infrastructure, reputable investors and reasonable prices.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association: A mixture of opportunities and challenges
In general, it is difficult for the real estate bubble to happen in 2019 due to market management and control factors. The state agencies have much experience in the timely and effective use of tax, credit, land use plans and investment projects to regulate the market. Real estate businesses, commercial banks, investors and consumers have become wiser as well.
However, the market will face many opportunities and challenges. As the market slumped in 2018, the shortage of real estate products will continue to happen in 2019, especially the middle and low-end housing segments. While high-end housing segment is showing signs of oversupply, leading to a fierce competition.
The access to loans from real estate businesses will also be more difficult when it is expected that credit growth in 2019-2020 will be around 16%/year along with the fact that commercial banks only use no more than 40% of short-term mobilized capital sources for medium and long-term loans.
The roadmap to gradually reduce this credit source of the state bank is very positive because it has created pressure on real estate enterprises to seek other sources of capital, first of all from the stock market, corporate bonds, foreign investment capital (FDI). But in order to adapt to the roadmap which gradually reduces this credit, businesses need towell prepare in all aspects.
Duong Thuy Dung, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam: Good supply, stable price
We have been concerned about the market in 2018 will slow down, but up to now it can be affirmed that the market in 2018 has done very well withthe number of projects equivalent to 2017. Specifically, as of the end of 11/2018, Ho Chi Minh City has 32,000 units for sale, up 1,000 units compared to 2017. In Hanoi market there are about 33,000 new apartments for sale, up nearly 2,000 units compared to 2017.
Regarding the market prospect, the market is expected to receive more resources in 2019-2020. Projects that have been delayed for sale in 2018, will have been offered to investors by 2019 when completing legal procedures. Also in 2019, new projects offered for sale in District 1 will raise the price level across the market. For other segments, with a good new supply, the price will still be stable.
For investors and individuals who buy to lease, especially in the high-end segment will face many challenges when a large number of apartments are completed and put into operation. From 2018 to 2020, every year the market will receive about 40,000 more units (only in Ho Chi Minh City) to be completed for delivery to customers, of which 60-70% of these projects are located in the medium and high end segments.
Prediction of the real estate market 2019 will be a mixture of many opportunities and difficulties.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong, Dai Phuc Land General Director: The market will develop in depth
In 2018, the market shows a slowdown than 2017 because of some objective factors related to policies and credit. However, in 2019, the real estate market will not have too many changes but will have more clarification and stability. The market will not be too hot, nor slow down and grow in depth. It means that customers will choose big investors with brand name, prestige and products with real values, not short-term investment depending on the market.
In terms of supply, due to the general policy, the supply will be limited because the licensing of new projects is difficult. When the land fund in the inner city is scarce, it is certain that big investors will turn to satellite urban areas or coastal areas with a radius of 10-20km from the center to develop the project.
However, the real demand for housing will remain stable. Short-term investment will be limited. Instead of added value from market factors, customers will target real value-added products. In 2019, the mid-end segment with reasonable prices will be leading. However, contrary to Hanoi, HCMC has a good supply in the high-end segment. Therefore, the demand for high-end segment in 2019 is still growing.
Mr. Phan Cong Chanh, General Director of Phu Vinh Group: The market will be extremely harsh
The 2018 real estate market has 4 notable highlights. Firstly, many apartment fires across the country had a serious effect on this segment. Secondly, the local land fever in three areas which are supposed to become economic zones, including Van Don, Bac Van Phong and Phu Quoc pushed real estate prices at all segments to a new level. Thirdly, there appears to be a difference in supply and demand in the apartment segment. Fourthly, real estate businesses intend to shift to the provinces.2019 from my point of view, the market will move sideways in the first and second quarters until there are new policies from state management agencies which help the market recover gradually in the third and fourth quarters. Regarding investment trends in 2019, I think that affordable land, townhouses, apartments are always 3 segments in the “must-have” list.In 2019, coastal garden houses, resort and factories can be 3 segments that attract investors’ attention. Besides, the coastal land will be the highlightin 2019. However, private investors and real estate businesses have to think further to find new opportunities for themselves.
In 2019, real estate enterprises may face a shortage of beautiful land fund for project development. Tightening policies and credit into real estate will make the market’s screening more and more intense. Many businesses will have to leave the market, only businesses that are prepared to take a new step will have the opportunity to break out. 2019 real estate market will be the year of the word “adjustment”.Supply is adjusted in a more balanced way of product ratio. Products are adjusted more closely to the needs of users. Users and private investors will adjust towards a more intelligent, demanding and pragmatic way. Brokers will have to adjust to a way which is more professional, using less tricks and more technology applications.Policies on parcel division, project development, credit policy, property tax policy, if promulgated, will have a strong impact on the market in 2019.
I think the 2019 real estate market always has the opportunity for those who know how to grasp but it will also be extremely harsh for those who do not know how to adjust to fit the time.
Mr. Dang Duc Gioi, General Director of DK LAND Company: The investor is waiting and hoping
2019 is not the year of the land plot segment yet. It can be seen that in the past years, the land market has boomed, especially in the peri-urban areas of big cities and urban areas. With a large number of projects and products launched, it has become a short-term investment channel, but the demand is very limited. Therefore, in 2019 the land plot segment will level off to “digestive market”. The resort real estate segment will become popular, the market will gradually increase with the big signals and policies issued by the state.
In areas that were once reeling in the land fever, after twice the National Assembly postponed passing through the Special Economic Zone bill, investors holding land were somewhat worried but absolutely not confused. They have a strong faith that sooner or later the National Assembly will approve, so they are always in the heart of waiting and hoping. In the three areas expected to become the special zones, the markets of Phu Quoc and Van Don are the brightest and more exciting because these two localities have nearly met the basic factors of natural conditions, geographical location, infrustructure, government apparatus, and travel brand to be ready for development.
Mr. Nguyen Van Duc, Deputy Director of Dat Lanh Real Estate Company: Scarcity of new supply
In 2019, the supply of high-end home market will significantly reduce because the ideal positions were invested and sold out long time ago. Housing for low-income people will not be available because the procedure is too cumbersome, profit from making low-income houses is negligible so few businesses has invested in this segment anymore. Only the mid-end segment will dominate the market.
Regarding the number of projects, I think the risk of closing projects is huge. We know that high-value and medium-value projects all are public land. Meanwhile, HCM City has hundreds of projects originating from public land being inspected at the moment. As a result, these projects cannot be approved for investment.
For projects that are entirely private but must be granted a certificate of residential land, they will be allowed to invest. If the land for agricutural purposes and private factory land have not yet completed the procedures for payment of land use fees, it is not considered residential land and has not been approved for investment. At that time, there will be no new projects appearing in 2019, the market falls into scarcity. The market tends to move to the periphery, focusing on the land segment. It is indispensable that investors are no longer able to exploit in the center because the land fund is exhausted. Meanwhile, the market of neighboring provinces in Ho Chi Minh City has a very high potential.
Mr. NGUYEN VAN DINH, VICE CHAIRMAN OF VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE (VARS): Real estate bubble will not happen
The real estate market in the long term is still very potential, but in the short term it will certainly be affected by Circular 36.
Along with that, a number of policies are about to be issued or adjusted, playing an important role to help it more transparent and remove obstacles to the activities of the real estate market. Turning to 2019 when credit valve tightened, access to capital of both investors and customers is difficult, which would reduce transactions. Along with many other factors (rising land prices, input …) will make it difficult for investors and the whole market.
Certainly the real estate bubble will not happen because Vietnam’s economy is growing steadily. The real estate market can follow a cycle of growth to peak and recession. Previously, that cycle was short and deep, but now due to better market factors, the cycle is much longer than before and is not as deep as before.
Currently, the real estate market in provinces along major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is developing quite well, mainly concentrated on the land segment.
In the apartment segment, although large scale projects have appeared, due to habits and culture, especially because the land fund in the provinces is still relatively large, this segment is not really dynamic. People and investors still prefer land which will also be the key segment in 2019.
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute of Competitive Strategies and Brands: Risk still remains, avoiding over-excitement
Looking at the big picture of the real estate from the recovery period until now, especially 2017-2018, it is clear that there is a new development from suppliers to information and connections to buyers. Besides the increase in quantity, the quality is also higher.
Market developments have fevers but these fevers are only local as in the land segment, in some locations due to the development of infrastructure, planning, plus land speculation in some places which are intended to be a special zone. However, along with that, there are also quieter segments such as resort real estate related to unclear legal issues accompanied by a decrease in investor expectations. Demand for houses to live, use, long-term investments tends to be clearer and gradually leading.
Speculation has increased in the end of 2017 and early 2018 but there is also a new point that investors’ choices are wiser.
There are two issues for 2019. In the context of economic growth, there are not many breakthroughs or traverses, the problem is how to make the market develop healthily, reduce risks.
But along with that is the preparation for the gloomy sky scenario, the uncertain risk will increase, which requires more flexible policies, ranging from macro policies to monetary and legal ones to limit risk as much as possible.
Over-excitement also needs to be considered, from some areas, fever may spread throughout the market. For example, from the supply of credit in general, to the supply of real estate credit, we need to have better statistics and monitoring in consumer lending, plus calculating the level of risk to look more substantially on the real estate lending towards tight control.
Along with that, it need be recognized that the slowing down trend can lead to a big decline of the economy, so there must be a more flexible plan. Thus, we need to restrain our excitement; we have to worry that the slowdown will affect the development of the real estate market, further the economic growth. It can be considered a challenge when there are risks in the bright spot and the risk prevention is necessary.
– Source: CafeLand –